🔗 Share this article

Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently serves as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or simply the greatest upset.

But the current competition is fundamentally unique. The list of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime also-rans ascending in unison. During an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a chaotic and fun year, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still