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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their new city leader this election day, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has become an acrimonious showdown, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd